Many say the "middle of winter" is on Groundhog Day (February 2). In 2026, the midpoint between winter solstice and spring equinox fell on February 3. But why quibble over one day, it's all good weather from there, right? Not so fast...
Large rodent shadows aside, meteorologists consider the middle of winter to fall around February 13 to 15, weather-wise. And we all know that we can get some nasty wintry storms before, and even after, the vernal equinox -- which happens this year on March 20 at 11:46 am ADT. Chances for severe winter storms are less as we get closer to spring, but any type of severe storm can be a bad thing.
Lots of snow on the ground is seen as a good thing for those who had dry wells this past summer. Whether it helps their wells, or runs off elsewhere in a fast melt, is another story for which we don't know the end. There are lots of variables, including the density of the snow and ice on the ground, in the woods, and the depth of frozen earth. Another key factor is the most unpredictable: the weather.
Rapidly warming temperatures and rain storms can bring flash flooding from run-off. A layer of snow can hold many times that depth in "snow to water equivalent", so a couple of warm days with rain can actually put many dozens of cm of rain into rivers and streams. Ice jams in streams and rivers do what they want, when they want. Our changing climate has brought more intense storms, so it's always good to keep alert to conditions that can escalate within hours as the weather warms up. You can check your local weather forecasts and alerts at weather.gc.ca.
As we slide towards spring, do you have a plan? Have you thought what you would do if you were stranded without a road or power or phone for a few days?
For help with your plan, NB-EMO has an Emergency Preparedness Guide that you can download, (aussi disponible en français) . The Government of Canada also provides some good hints at GetPrepared.ca.